Scouting Report: Ace Bailey (2025 NBA Draft)

June 18, 2025

Ace Bailey | SF | Rutgers

Age

Height

Weight

Hometown

18.9

6-8

205

Powder Springs, GA

Archetype

Projected Role

Risk

Future Value

Scoring Wing

Off-Ball Scorer / Play Finisher

High

50 (Solid Starter)

Overview

Ace Bailey remains one of the most polarizing talents in the 2025 class—an enormous, fluid shotmaker whose long-term value hinges almost entirely on role clarity and developmental fit. At Rutgers, he was thrust into an outsized on-ball role within a poorly spaced offense, which exposed his limitations as a creator while still showcasing tantalizing flashes of high-level scoring.

Bailey’s appeal is rooted in his size (6’8” with a 7’0”+ wingspan), coordinated movement, and shooting upside. He’s an excellent pull-up shooter with deep range and footwork that creates separation, and he flashed legitimate movement shooting value even in a stagnant offense. His mechanics are clean, and he’s shown success attacking off screens and off the catch. He’s not a natural finisher—lacking strength, touch, and burst through contact—but can punish a tilted defense when the conditions are right.

Defensively, Bailey covers a ton of ground with his length and can make splash plays as a help-side rim protector. However, his inconsistent motor and upright stance limit his reliability as a one-on-one defender. His best moments come off the ball, rotating to challenge shots or flying around to make plays. Locking into a team scheme and developing better bend and lower-body strength will be key.

If he improves his flexibility, play strength, and discipline, there's a path to becoming a high-leverage starter who can shoot, defend, and play within a team structure. He has already shown signs of NBA-caliber scoring tools at just 18 years old and held up relatively well on a struggling team. The early NBA arc could mirror that of bigger wings who took time to mature physically and accept role limitations. The upside is real—but so are the conditions required to reach it.

Tool Grades

      Tool
      Grade
      Notes
    
      Creation
      45
      Can create separation for himself, but lacks consistency and vision; best attacking advantages.
    
      Shooting
      60
      Legitimate shooting weapon with deep range, clean mechanics, and movement versatility.
    
      Finishing
      45
      Struggles at the rim due to strength and touch concerns; needs significant growth to be efficient.
    
      Defense
      50
      Covers ground and shows instincts in help, but stance and focus waver. Switch potential if coached up.
    
      Athleticism
      55
      Long, fluid, and mobile in space, but plays upright and lacks core strength and flexibility.

Traits Summary

Strengths: Shooting upside, positional size, defensive playmaking
Weaknesses: Handle under pressure, rim finishing, play strength, ball-watching
Development Areas: Shot selection, flexibility and posture, consistent defensive effort, passing reads

Draft Outlook

Bailey is widely considered a top-three talent in this draft class, and teams are betting on his rare combination of size, fluidity, and shotmaking. But his projection is more about what he can be than what he is. If he buys into a role, sharpens his discipline, and develops physically, he has a path to becoming a high-level starter on a playoff team. If not, the early years could be rocky.

The ceiling exists. But it’s conditional—and will depend heavily on organizational fit, role discipline, and patience.